SWING AND A PRAYER   We’ve all heard of the swing states — the states that could, in essence, decide the election for either President Obama or Mitt Romney.  They’re so “swing” that at least one major news organization has sent out student reporters to all 12 of them, making the other 38 irrelevant!   (Just kidding!  Sort of.  But with one major presidential candidate playing favorites, perhaps now is not the time to divvy up America, I’m just saying.) Now Nate Silver has done a deeper dive and narrowed those swing states to ten “strategically important” ones, breaking them down into four groups: The Big Two (Ohio and Florida) The New Breed (Virginia, Colorado and Nevada) Primary Purple (Iowa and New Hampshire) The Blue Wall (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan) His conclusion? The most plausible range of outcomes runs from Obama losing the election by about two percentage points, slightly better than John Kerry did, to his winning it by perhaps six or seven, slightly worse than his margin from four years ago. Given where the election is being contested, however, the most likely outcome is that Obama wins enough tipping-point states to eke out a victory. We’ll wait to see what the latest set of polling looks like in light of Romney’s “47%” speech and the fallout from Obama’s handling of the deadly protests in Libya and elsewhere.  For now, would love to hear your reactions in the replies and reblogs, please. — inothernews (Graphic via the New York Times)
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SWING AND A PRAYER   We’ve all heard of the swing states — the states that could, in essence, decide the election for either President Obama or Mitt Romney.  They’re so “swing” that at least one major news organization has sent out student reporters to all 12 of them, making the other 38 irrelevant!   (Just kidding!  Sort of.  But with one major presidential candidate playing favorites, perhaps now is not the time to divvy up America, I’m just saying.)

Now Nate Silver has done a deeper dive and narrowed those swing states to ten “strategically important” ones, breaking them down into four groups:

  1. The Big Two (Ohio and Florida)
  2. The New Breed (Virginia, Colorado and Nevada)
  3. Primary Purple (Iowa and New Hampshire)
  4. The Blue Wall (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan)

His conclusion?

The most plausible range of outcomes runs from Obama losing the election by about two percentage points, slightly better than John Kerry did, to his winning it by perhaps six or seven, slightly worse than his margin from four years ago. Given where the election is being contested, however, the most likely outcome is that Obama wins enough tipping-point states to eke out a victory.

We’ll wait to see what the latest set of polling looks like in light of Romney’s “47%” speech and the fallout from Obama’s handling of the deadly protests in Libya and elsewhere.  For now, would love to hear your reactions in the replies and reblogs, please.

— inothernews

(Graphic via the New York Times)

Source: The New York Times

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